A Summary of China’s Economic Statistics in 2025

On January 19, 2026, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that, according to preliminary estimates, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 was approximately 140.2 trillion CNY. In constant-price terms, this represented year-on-year growth of 5.0%, meeting the annual growth target of around 5% set at the beginning of the year and matching the growth rate of the previous year. A major reason China was able to achieve the 5% target was the substantial contribution from exports. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s total merchandise trade in 2025 amounted to 45.47 trillion CNY, of which exports totaled 26.99 trillion CNY and imports 18.48 trillion CNY. In U.S. dollar terms, China’s full-year trade surplus in 2025 reached 1.19 trillion USD, setting a new historical record. In addition, National Bureau of Statistics data showed that net exports of goods and services contributed 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025, accounting for approximately 32% of the full-year 5.0% economic growth rate, or nearly one-third.

However, this is obviously not sustainable, and there are also quite a few distortions and irregularities beneath the surface. As a result, given their pessimistic expectations for the future, firms have been unwilling to invest in business expansion, leading to a 3.8% year-on-year decline in nationwide fixed-asset investment in 2025. During the same period, the scale of overseas assets held by China’s non-official sector exceeded its external debt for the first time, indicating that capital is still flowing out. Therefore, the economy as a whole remains on a weakening trajectory. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP growth rates from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025 were 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5%, respectively, clearly showing a pattern of stronger performance early in the year and weaker performance later on. The 4.5% growth rate in the fourth quarter even marked the lowest level since the lifting of pandemic restrictions in 2022. This shows that China’s current economic situation remains highly challenging.

The 2025 Financial Statistics Report released by the People’s Bank of China on January 15 showed that, at the end of December 2025, China’s broad money supply (M2) exceeded 340 trillion CNY, reaching 340.29 trillion CNY, up 8.5% year on year. This means that the increase in M2 for the whole of 2025 reached 26.76 trillion CNY, second only to 2022 during the pandemic period. The rapid growth in M2 indicates that the current financial environment remains accommodative, but it is worth noting that the gap between M2 and M1 continued to widen. At the end of December 2025, M1 grew by only 3.8% year on year, 4.7 percentage points below M2. The spread widened by 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that despite the central bank’s continued easing, households, corporations, and other economic agents still remain unwilling to convert time deposits into liquid funds available for consumption or investment. This is especially evident in the deposit data. In 2025, household deposits increased by 14.6 trillion CNY, while non-financial corporate deposits increased by 2.3 trillion CNY; together, the two accounted for 64% of newly added CNY deposits. This clearly reflects the conservative sentiment prevailing among market participants. In order to stimulate credit demand from households and firms, on January 15 the People’s Bank of China announced the first structural interest-rate cut of the year, in an attempt to provide more targeted support to the real economy, and it also signaled that there remains room this year for further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates.

In addition, data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that the number of newborns in China fell to 7.92 million in 2025, the lowest level since 1949, which also implies that the downturn cycle in the real estate market will be very prolonged.

In conclusion, China’s 2025 economic data present a mixed but fundamentally concerning picture. Headline GDP growth met the official target, and external demand provided substantial support, but much of this performance was driven by record trade surpluses rather than a broad-based recovery in domestic demand. At the same time, weak fixed-asset investment, persistent capital outflows, sluggish monetary transmission, elevated precautionary savings, and a record-low number of births all point to deepening structural pressures within the economy. Taken together, these indicators suggest that although short-term growth was maintained, the foundations of growth remain fragile, and the challenges facing China’s economy are likely to persist for an extended period.

The cover image of this article was taken at Merlion Park in Singapore.